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9 Maja 15

Citibank Handlowy Oddział CitiFinancial

Globalny szok energii: Morze Czerwone zablokowane, ceny paliw na zenicie, znaczenie dla biznesu

• Triada kryzysu (15 września 2026): Saudi Aramco pipeline 7mb/d offline + Hormuz reduced to 2.7mb/d + ULSD hits $5.2620/gal record. • Market fundamentals: 17–21 mb/d removed from global circulation; US distillate reserves at 30-year low; Ukrainian strikes dismantled 43% of Russian refining capacity. • Business impact: Transportation costs spike; supply chain delays (+10–14 days via Cape vs Suez); inflation in logistics feeds through to retail, food, energy sectors. • Price scenarios: Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent ~$85/bbl (reopen scenario); Rystad escalation case reaches $140–200/bbl if infrastructure struck. • Restoration timeline: Pipeline weeks to months; Hormuz diplomatic-dependent with no fast path; global supply normalization unlikely before Q1 2027.